In recent years the Oscars have often been out-oscared by the Golden Globes. While the Academy increasingly gets mired into appeasing the never ending demands of identity politics and risks going the way of beauty pageants, the Globes neatly sidesteps hashtag campaigns by giving a gong to everyone it can. Once seen as something of a joke award, the Globes have steadily built their brand to the level of credible precursor to the Oscars.
Although ratings for most awards shows continue to plummet and online discussion of film awards in particular, now mainly centre around the colour, sex and sexuality of nominees rather than merit or excellence, audiences still crave movie glamour and entertainment. The Globes generally deliver on both. The awards have the advantage of being early on in awards season before people get awards fatigue and before the speeches become repetitive and the ‘surprised delight’ just a little bit rehearsed!
Secondly, the Globes usually strike gold by picking hosts who are just spiky enough to make people feel uncomfortable but also genuinely funny. Ricky Gervais was not to everyone’s taste but he sparked public interest in the awards by jabbing at big stars. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler took the show to new heights with jokes that people actually quoted the next day at work and on social media and still remember (the essence of a successful tv show).
While I’m personally not a fan of shows that combine film and television awards (it makes an already lengthy show even longer and cumbersome), with the hugely popular programmes on television now, the joint format gives the Globes a potentially bigger audience.
Most of all, the Globes have always had the image of being the ‘fun awards’, the ones the stars enjoy. While winning one is a bonus and a welcome addition to the mantelpiece, it’s not the Oscar so the tension while you wait for your name to be called is not quite the same and losing to a rival is not quite so awful – maybe (although it can mean the end to an Oscar dream). I’m told that the lavish goody bags sometimes containing sex toys) and endless alcohol can make up for a loss! A friend who goes to the Globes each year tells me that one of the best things about being invited is being offered all the freebies to wear to the event. Dresses, makeup, jewellery, shoes are to be expected but underwear? Yes, apparently designers offer that too!
So, with that information swiftly cast out of mind here are my totally unscientific predictions for tonight’s awards (I’m only focusing on the main film awards):
Director of a Motion Picture: It’s surely between Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) and Alfonso Cuaron (Roma). Cuaron did an amazing job and deserves it but he’s been lauded as a director before and Cooper did everything bar make the sandwiches on his film. So, I’ll go with Cooper on the basis they don’t give him best actor. If Cooper gets best actor, then I’m going with Cuaron. Spike Lee could be the spoiler.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture Drama : it’s between Bradley Cooper and Rami Malek. I’ll go with Cooper if he doesn’t get best director. Otherwise Malek. Both are worthy winners.
Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy: I haven’t seen his performance in Vice yet, but insiders tell me Christian Bale has this. I’m fine with Bale winning but John C Reilly winning for Stan and Ollie would be lovely but won’t happen. Possible spoiler Lin Manuel Miranda for Mary Poppins Returns.
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali is tipped for Green Book. I haven’t seen the film yet. If Blackkklansman wins anything, it should be this award for Adam Driver.
Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy: Olivia Colman is on a roll and will get this and that’s great. My choice would be Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns
Best Actress in a Motion Picture Drama: A very interesting and strong category. It should go to Rosamund Pike for A Private War. However, I think it’s between Lady Gaga and Glenn Close. The Globes have rewarded Gaga before for television work. They could do so again here. Especially if they plan to give the film the big best picture award.
Best Supporting Actress: It should be Rachel Weisz all the way to the Oscar. She’s transcendent in The Favourite and absolutely holds the film together. The screen is bereft when she’s not on it. However, the money is on Regina King in If Beale Street could talk. The audience I saw the latter film with at LFF kept looking at their watches during this waiting for it to end. So, since this is my list, I’m not going with the smart money but with Mrs 007.
Best Motion Picture Musical or Comedy: The Favourite.
Best Motion Picture Drama: A Star is Born will win. There’s been talk of Bohemian Rhapsody taking this but I can’t see that happening. Without Malek’s performance it’s a weak film. Blackkklansman is punching above its weight in this category and should not sneak a win but could provide an upset
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