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Oscar Predictions: Garry Arnot



‘Garry’s Gamble’ Oscars 2013 Special

                This Sunday is the 85th Academy Awards ceremony which will see the biggest films of the year go up against one another, with Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln leading the way with 12 nominations, in front of Ang Lee’s ‘Life of Pi’ with 11. With the last two years’ having runaway winners in The King’s Speech and The Artist, this year seems a little more open, though Argo is currently odds on favourite to take the coveted Best Picture gong. My thoughts and betting guide on the main categories are as follows…

Best Picture

Nominees:- Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

If Argo is to win this on Sunday night, it’ll be one of only five films to have won the big prize without the director being nominated in the Best Director category. Despite this, it’s currently favourite at 1/7. It’s an exceptionally heroic American story, presenting the nation in a flattering light, which will go down well with The Academy, in contrast to the more controversial American accounts of outsiders Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained which leave them at joint 6th in line at 100/1! There is no value is backing frontrunners Argo or Lincoln, who have switched places in the race with Lincoln being odds on favourite only a matter of weeks ago. The dark horse in this section is Silver Linings Playbook, a heart-warming account of two mentally unstable misfits, which has received nods of recognition in each of the main categories showing that The Academy certainly approve. Personally, I’d like to see Django Unchained as a shock victor here but with somehow a film which drops as many N-bombs as it does, it seems highly unlikely.

Favourite – Argo 1/7

‘Garry’s Gamble’ – Silver Linings Playbook 33/1


Best Director

Nominees:- Michael Haneke, Ang Lee, David O Russell, Steven Spielberg, Benh Zeitlin

Steven Spielberg looks set to take home his third trophy in this category, currently bookies’ favourite at 1/4. This year, the most interesting talking point isn’t who received a nomination for Best Director, it’s who didn’t. Quentin Tarantino, Kathryn Bigelow have missed out and most controversially Ben Affleck has been snubbed by The Academy, making room for Amour director Michael Haneke who is my outsider punt to steal it away from Spielberg. If anyone is going to do it, Haneke can, putting together the best received foreign film at the Oscars since Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon in 2000.

Favourite – Steven Spielberg 1/4

‘Garry’s Gamble’ – Michael Haneke 16/1


Best Actor 

Nominees:- Bradley Cooper, Daniel Day Lewis, Hugh Jackman, Joaquin Phoenix, Denzel Washington

There isn’t a lot to say here. Daniel Day Lewis will bag his Best Actor hat trick when he takes the prize on Sunday.  Please note I say ‘when’, not ‘if’. Portraying arguably the most popular American of all time, he can’t really go wrong but there have been massive shocks in the past (see Adrian Brody winning in 2002 for The Pianist, shrugging off competition from Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day Lewis and Michael Caine) so on that note, I am putting a cheeky pound on The Master’s Joaquin Phoenix who I thought was brilliant. Also, amazingly, no man has ever taken the award from starring in a Spielberg film which could scupper DDL’s chances if the pattern continues.

Favourite – Daniel Day Lewis 1/50

‘Garry’s Gamble’ –  Joaquin Phoenix 66/1


Best Actress

Nominees:- Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Emmanuelle Riva, Quvenzhane Wallis, Naomi Watts

Contrasting with the male counterpart, the Best Actress race is wide open. Originally seen as a two horse race between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain, the odds have been continually changing in recent weeks, and although JL is still favourite, Emmanuelle Riva is now a strong contender after picking up the BAFTA earlier this month. This year sees the oldest and youngest nominees in Oscars history, with 9 year old Wallis earning her nod with a brave performance in Beasts of the Southern Wild and Riva also receiving recognition for Amour at the grand old age of 85. Sadly, Naomi Watts doesn’t seem to have a look in, despite a magnificent turn in tsunami epic The Impossible.

Favourite – Jennifer Lawrence 4/7

‘Garry’s Gamble’ – Emmanuelle Riva 5/2


Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:- Alan Arkin, Robert De Niro, Tommy Lee Jones, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Christoph Waltz

Another wide open battle here between five previous Oscar winners. Current favourite is Tommy Lee Jones at 6/5, with Waltz a close second at 13/8. All strong contenders but no stand out winner due to the sheer calibre in this field. The bar is set so high, anyone could take it but personally, as a big fan, I will be rooting for De Niro, backing him to win his third, over thirty years after winning for Raging Bull.

Favourite – Tommy Lee Jones 6/5

‘Garry’s Gamble’ – Robert De Niro 6/1


Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:- Amy Adams, Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, Helen Hunt, Jacki Weaver

Well done Anne Hathaway.

Favourite – Anne Hathaway 1/66

‘Garry’s Gamble’ – N/A





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