2025 Awards Season: The Lead Actress/Actor Race

The Golden Globes nominations dropped in early December. The Critics Choice Awards noms dropped shortly after, as did those for the Australian Academy Awards. Every city with a cinema seems to have announced its critics circle nominations/winners, with BIFA already holding its ceremony.

Yes, we are at the start of Awards season with the major ceremonies about to begin this weekend with the Globes. The season will culminate, of course, with the Academy Awards on March 5th but the road to Oscar is still a long one and filled with potential pitfalls and potholes into which aspiring nominees may yet sink. That’s why I find this section of the season so fascinating to observe. There is a subtle tension in the air as wannabe nominees try to perfect the delicate dance of not appearing too desperate while also not wanting to seem uninterested, of not coming across too cocky while also ensuring voters know how great their work this year was. And they have to keep this dance up for a long time.

The Governors Awards, held each November, is when it gets serious. After weeks of posing and preening on the red carpet at various festivals, such as Venice, Toronto and London to promote their films. The Governors Awards, at which honorary Oscars are handed out to pre determined recipients, is the first chance actors and filmmakers have, to mix with industry peers who can vote for them. The schmoozing which will carry on, over the next four months, starts in earnest here because at this point the favourites haven’t yet narrowed to a select few. The field is still fairly wide open. So everyone with a chance of being nominated for the glitzy Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, Bafta awards and of course, the holy grail of film awards, the Oscars, puts on their most endearing smile and their best glad rags and heads on down to the Ball to press the flesh, make amusing small talk and charm everyone into placing that x in the right box come voting time.

The 2024 Ball took place on 18th November and everyone who wasn’t committed to promotion tours abroad was there. The likes of Nicole Kidman, Demi Moore, Angelina Jolie, Saoirse Ronan, Kate Winslet and Tilda Swinton led the glamorous red carpet charge for consideration in the Best Actress category. Paul Mescal, Colman Domingo, Daniel Craig, Andrew Garfield et al tuxedoed up for the Best Actor team.

The Golden Globe nominations perked up some of this group to make even more high profile appearances while those who missed out quietly started to take a back seat. While surprises are still possible, so no one wants to completely drop out of the race, awards campaigns cost big money and studios have to assess their chances before committing big bucks to a hopeless cause.

However, this year, the race still remains fairly wide open in some categories so the industry screenings, actors on actors talks, chat show appearances and magazines interviews continue to run at full pace. 

This means that industry media pundits who make predictions about who is likely to be nominated and who might win are also very busy. 

So, what are these predictions? Who is looking good for major nominations and wins at this stage?

Look, there’s no science to predicting who might be crying tears of joy in the coming weeks and who might be weeping into their kale juice. For all the mathematical equations some claim can determine who will be nominated or win the big awards and for all the claims from journalists of having ‘inside sources’, the reality is everyone making predictions is just piecing bits of information together, keeping their ear to the ground, listening to the chatter at industry parties and making informed guesses. 

I will do the same below in my assessment of the Lead Actor and Lead Actress categories. I too have been listening, reading, watching and weighing up snippets of information here are some thoughts:

Best (Lead) Actress

It’s a crowded field this year which is great because I remember past awards seasons when it was a struggle to find five stand out female performances to nominate.

Angelina Jolie

Jolie was an early front runner for her turn as opera superstar Maria Callas in Pablo Larrain’s Maria. I first saw the film at its premiere at the Venice festival. It’s a grand performance and thought Jolie would be a shoe-in for nominations across the board. I was less sure of an Oscar win because I didn’t know how the film would play with voters. In addition, the acrimonious divorce battle with Brad Pitt has polarised people into team Brad and team Angelina, just as many years ago the world divided into Team Aniston and Team Jolie when Angelina ‘stole’ Brad from the Friends star. (Oh boy, could I write reams about the Brangelina years) But back to 2024. Since Venice, the promotion of and reaction to Maria has been surprisingly muted. Although Angelina is campaigning, her name has been notably absent from many critics lists and she isn’t nominated by the Australian Academy. I still expect her to get into the Oscar 5 but there may be surprise snubs elsewhere.

Nicole Kidman

I saw Babygirl at Venice too. I was underwhelmed by both the film and Kidman’s performance. I found both competent but unremarkable. However, Kidman is a Hollywood stalwart and an awards favourite, the role has been hyped as ‘edgy’ for her and she has been in major campaign and promotion mode. The result is she’s being nominated widely. I expect her to hit the big marks; BAFTAs, SAG and Oscars. I don’t see her winning though.

Mikey Madison 

Madison has all the buzz this awards season. Her incendiary turn in Anora has put her firmly in the spotlight. A sure fire bet for nominations across the board, she has already been winning up a storm with the critics lists. Although far from a household name like Jolie and Kidman, she is probably the actress to beat this year. If she takes Oscar, it will be a phenomenal achievement for the 25 year old in her first major role. 

Kate Winslet 

My friends out in Hollywood who go to all the right parties tell me there’s much love for Kate Winslet in Lee about war photographer Elizabeth ‘Lee’ Miller. A multiple award winner and nominee, I’d never count Winslet out in an awards race. While she’s unlikely to win for Lee, she has a lot of support in Hollywood. Her Titanic co-star Leonardo Di Caprio turned up to an industry screening of the film for her and sang her praises. Leo’s clout, her own popularity, her layered portrayal of Lee and body of work could combine to make her the unexpected nominee for a film which flew under the radar.

Demi Moore

Until last year, for younger filmgoers she was probably little more than a hazy name from the tabloids, as the ex wife of Bruce Willis and Ashton Kutcher. But older film fans will know that she was once the Jennifer Lawrence/Emma Stone of Hollywood. In the early ’90s she was the highest paid actress in the industry and the go to female star for the big roles. However, from the late 90s her star waned dramatically and she pretty much disappeared from the big screen until she returned with a big bang, last year. Playing an ageing celebrity in The Substance, she gained both critical acclaim and a resurgence in popularity. She promoted the film hard and has been rewarded with numerous nominations for her performance. I will not be surprised if a combination of nostalgia, goodwill and admiration for her raw performance in the film means she takes the fifth slot at Oscar. Either way, she’s going to be the most stunning 62 year on all the red carpets. 

Other contenders for the Best Actress nominations, have been hit and miss, so far. The ever excellent Saoirse Ronan had a brief, major push for The Outrun but then seemed to run out of steam. Popular and reliable with a good body of work, she may yet get in for Oscar, especially if she’s nominated for a Bafta.

Marianne Jean-Baptiste missed out on a Golden Globe nomination for her strong turn in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. However, a Bafta nomination is likely and that could propel her into the Oscar 5 too.

Karla Sofia Gascon took the Best Actress award at Cannes for Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez and has a nomination in the musical/comedy category at the Globes. Gascon was an early favourite for nominations across the board but also seems to have lost steam. In recent years, Hollywood actresses have rushed to describe themselves as ‘actors’ in a bid to take sex out of the profession, so it will be interesting to see reactions to a trans actor (Gascon was born Juan Carlos) possibly take a coveted Best Actress slot for Oscar.

Tilda Swinton – another always reliable presence on screen, she had a surge of support for the latest Almodovar, The Room next Door but also seems to have run out of puff. But never rule her out. 

Cynthia Erivo – if the much parodied press tour belonged to both of them, then, part 1 of Wicked belonged to Ariana Grande-Butera. Erivo’s story arc will come fully into play in part 2 and that will be the time to nominate her for Lead Actress rather than this year when Grande was clearly a co-lead but is being pushed in the supporting categories where she may score major wins. However, if Wicked gets multiple nominations across the board, Erivo will take her place in the lead actress list.

Fernanda Torres – never say never but the push for her to be nominated has probably run out of gas.

Pamela Anderson – Although she has likely peaked with a Golden Globe nomination for The Last Showgirl, her gratitude and delight at the achievement and clear love for a profession which has not taken her seriously has been a joy to behold and something young actors could learn much from.

Best (Lead) Actor

If the women are everywhere in gorgeous gowns and adorning magazine covers in their bid to be nominated, the men are not far behind. Colman Domingo has been striking a pose or two for publications in dapper outfits and Daniel Craig has showed off quite a few stylish tuxedos at industry events too. Timothee Chalamet is running the gamut of potential voting bases by talking about football on a sports show, taking part in career retrospectives, doing late night chat shows, paying tribute to Bob Dylan and keeping the internet busy with speculation about the state of his romance with Kylie Jenner. Even the elusive Ralph Fiennes recently showed up on a televised New Year’s Eve broadcast in the USA.

Unlike the Actress category, the Best Actor list is looking pretty steady: 

Adrian Brody for The Brutalist

Ralph Fiennes for Conclave

Timothee Chalamet for A Complete Unknown

Daniel Craig for Queer

Colman Domingo for Sing Sing

Chalamet winning the Oscar would make him the youngest Best Actor victor. But will the Academy want to award him this early in his career?

Brody winning would earn him a place in an elite group of two time winners. 

Craig would win at his first attempt and Colman too would be a first time winner. For my money the big awards, including Oscar, must surely go to Fiennes. Robbed, many think for Schindler’s List and The English Patient among other superb performances, snubbed totally for The Grand Budapest Hotel, this has to be his year. From Voldermort in the Harry Potter franchise to the man who almost becomes the Pope in Conclave, his body of work and his layered, nuanced turn in Conclave should ensure that the hand of God points to him this awards season.